As ever a very thought-provoking essay! A couple of points, though:
1. Immigration: the factor that is rarely identified in relation to swings in immigration is foreign students (with or without dependents). People who have come here to improve their education and in so doing provide a useful income stream to the UK’s Universities at a time when the UK Gov’s policy of Austerity is damaging them. In a well-organised country these students would be classed separately from asylum-seekers and their movements tracked year on year. But this is UK and we’re not good at reliable data – just look at the Whole of Government Accounts where Austerity has damaged so many Departments and Local Authorities that their base data are unreliable and haven’t been audited because they can’t pay the going-rate for audit fees – with the result that we have no reliable data about the true state of the UK economy. We’ll just have to muddle through like we always do and that goes for immigration too. Statistics will be quoted, but whether they include temporary students or not is unlikely to be clarified.
2. The UK: The 2029 scenario assumes that the UK will still exist as it currently stands, but this is far from likely. Think of N Ireland as the San Andreas Fault of the UK. It’s gradually moving in a single direction: reunification with the Republic (a recent poll in N Ireland asked whether segregated schooling should be ended, and got a whopping 67% Yes vote) and when it does, it will become much harder for Westminster to deny Scotland the right to self-rule. Scotland is moving in the opposite direction politically from Labour in Westminster and Labour’s performance since gaining office is only boosting that divergence. It’s starting to show up in polls too, even those polls still weighting their outcomes with data from before the 2014 Independence Referendum, so keep an eye on polls about Scottish Independence. If Scotland goes, Wales will surely follow in time.
3. Conflation of UK with England: This is commonplace in everyday media reporting and, as such, is viewed as highly offensive in the devolved nations. It implies that England with its much bigger population is the only part of the UK that matters. News, sports, culture, weather forecasts, traffic news, languages, history etc are simply assumed to be uniform across all the UK’s nations. It’s perfectly captured by Scottish author James Robertson at https://youtu.be/ZhL57cjN8xY and was one of Alex Salmond’s final statements: “Scotland is a nation, not a region”. Well worth remembering.
There's a consistent pattern from immigration to Brexit to taxation where Starmer's government are unwilling and/or unable to call out the real problems and possible answers. Instead of which they trot out softer versions of what has gone before and conspicuously failed. As numerous commentators keep saying, just trying to copy Reform but soften it a bit just helps Reform. It does not need a leap to a full-on Corbyinsta version of socialism, but there are plenty of radical options out there if only they had the courage and imagination to take them
Labour seem to think caution is the answer to everything, with the result that no one knows what they really think or want and the plentiful attacks from the right hit home. They should be hitting back by *telling the truth, laying out the facts,* as Matt rightly says in his critique of Starmer's silly (because self-defeating) and rather pathetic speech about immigration. Nicking Farage's union flag and wrapping themselves in it doesn't fool anyone. At the end of the day, Farage is better at Farage-ing than Labour can ever be; they should know better than to try and take him on and use the opportunities offered by his simplistic sloganeering to hit back with the facts.
The axiom along the lines of “never believe anything until it’s been officially denied” has been credited to Claud Cockburn, Otto von Bismarck and doubtless others too; Musk and Farage have both denied that the latter is to be the beneficiary of a colossal bung from the former.
I think there’s a bit more to Starmer and his reticence to signal he is willing to make enemies of anyone.
There is an imperviousness to him that gets misread as an unwillingness to do the dirty politics - I still think he requires some outriders who’re prepared to connect with the opposition and the press with all the subtlety and subtext of a Prescott straight left.
I’m not convinced Robin. I mean, I see no evidence of that so far, not from him or anyone in his government. Starmer makes me think of Bismark’s description of Napoleon III - a sphinx without a riddle. Of course, I hope I’m wrong but…
As ever a very thought-provoking essay! A couple of points, though:
1. Immigration: the factor that is rarely identified in relation to swings in immigration is foreign students (with or without dependents). People who have come here to improve their education and in so doing provide a useful income stream to the UK’s Universities at a time when the UK Gov’s policy of Austerity is damaging them. In a well-organised country these students would be classed separately from asylum-seekers and their movements tracked year on year. But this is UK and we’re not good at reliable data – just look at the Whole of Government Accounts where Austerity has damaged so many Departments and Local Authorities that their base data are unreliable and haven’t been audited because they can’t pay the going-rate for audit fees – with the result that we have no reliable data about the true state of the UK economy. We’ll just have to muddle through like we always do and that goes for immigration too. Statistics will be quoted, but whether they include temporary students or not is unlikely to be clarified.
2. The UK: The 2029 scenario assumes that the UK will still exist as it currently stands, but this is far from likely. Think of N Ireland as the San Andreas Fault of the UK. It’s gradually moving in a single direction: reunification with the Republic (a recent poll in N Ireland asked whether segregated schooling should be ended, and got a whopping 67% Yes vote) and when it does, it will become much harder for Westminster to deny Scotland the right to self-rule. Scotland is moving in the opposite direction politically from Labour in Westminster and Labour’s performance since gaining office is only boosting that divergence. It’s starting to show up in polls too, even those polls still weighting their outcomes with data from before the 2014 Independence Referendum, so keep an eye on polls about Scottish Independence. If Scotland goes, Wales will surely follow in time.
3. Conflation of UK with England: This is commonplace in everyday media reporting and, as such, is viewed as highly offensive in the devolved nations. It implies that England with its much bigger population is the only part of the UK that matters. News, sports, culture, weather forecasts, traffic news, languages, history etc are simply assumed to be uniform across all the UK’s nations. It’s perfectly captured by Scottish author James Robertson at https://youtu.be/ZhL57cjN8xY and was one of Alex Salmond’s final statements: “Scotland is a nation, not a region”. Well worth remembering.
Thanks Ken. All good points. The question of foreign students is a particularly egregious example of how xenophobic anti-immigration sentiment damages the 'host' country, not to mention the people such sentiments are aimed at. International students, as you say, play a vital role in keeping many universities afloat, and also make a significant contribution to the cities where they study. International students also constitute a form of 'soft power': https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5b928cc1e5274a4242d1adf3/Impact_intl_students_report_published_v1.1.pdf. Yet they too, are treated as intruders and parasites, and now a 16 percent drop in numbers is proving economically damaging: https://www.business-standard.com/finance/personal-finance/be-very-careful-uk-colleges-warn-amid-16-drop-in-foreign-student-visas-124101500606_1.html. An insane way to run a country...
Valid points, all, no doubt. Dubious stats is all the more disturbing as we practically invented statistical methodology!
Think Rothamsted, Students T-test (OK, he worked for Guinness, not sure of his nationality).
Mostly originated from UK Govt-supported research centres serving agriculture. Savagely axed in the Thatcher-ordered review of early ‘90s.
Sorry - a hobby hirse of mine
Er …. Horse
There's a consistent pattern from immigration to Brexit to taxation where Starmer's government are unwilling and/or unable to call out the real problems and possible answers. Instead of which they trot out softer versions of what has gone before and conspicuously failed. As numerous commentators keep saying, just trying to copy Reform but soften it a bit just helps Reform. It does not need a leap to a full-on Corbyinsta version of socialism, but there are plenty of radical options out there if only they had the courage and imagination to take them
Martin Wolf's recent book on Democracy and Market Capitalism is especially good in this area
Labour seem to think caution is the answer to everything, with the result that no one knows what they really think or want and the plentiful attacks from the right hit home. They should be hitting back by *telling the truth, laying out the facts,* as Matt rightly says in his critique of Starmer's silly (because self-defeating) and rather pathetic speech about immigration. Nicking Farage's union flag and wrapping themselves in it doesn't fool anyone. At the end of the day, Farage is better at Farage-ing than Labour can ever be; they should know better than to try and take him on and use the opportunities offered by his simplistic sloganeering to hit back with the facts.
Luckily very few will have heard Starmers’ speeches, never mind remembering the contents.
You nailed it again Matt. I have a horrible fear that it will all come true.
I hope it doesn’t!
The axiom along the lines of “never believe anything until it’s been officially denied” has been credited to Claud Cockburn, Otto von Bismarck and doubtless others too; Musk and Farage have both denied that the latter is to be the beneficiary of a colossal bung from the former.
I think there’s a bit more to Starmer and his reticence to signal he is willing to make enemies of anyone.
There is an imperviousness to him that gets misread as an unwillingness to do the dirty politics - I still think he requires some outriders who’re prepared to connect with the opposition and the press with all the subtlety and subtext of a Prescott straight left.
I’m not convinced Robin. I mean, I see no evidence of that so far, not from him or anyone in his government. Starmer makes me think of Bismark’s description of Napoleon III - a sphinx without a riddle. Of course, I hope I’m wrong but…
I agree, he lacks charisma, but there is something steely there: patient and dogged.
I think that Starmer is in fact pretty insignificant - flotsam on the tide, rather than a motive force.
...and the clocks were striking thirteen...