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An interesting article that makes a strong case for reconciliation in Ukraine. Selenskyj, when addressing the US Congress made the point that the most powerful nation on Earth is also its peace keeper. Is the West really going to standby and watch the people of Ukraine be ground to dust? The answer appears to be yes. If history has taught us anything, it is that a bully sees appeasement as sign of weakness. Putin has correctly guessed that he can do what he likes in Ukraine, the consequences will only be sanctions; not a problem if you are sitting on massive oil reserves. If the sanctions do become a problem, he will let the West know. Failure to help Ukraine in any meaningful way may be the most dangerous course of all.

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It looks like the Russian invasion is a strategic disaster, from Putin’s point of view. He’s hardly taken any territory. His army - 75 percent now committed - is bogged down and reduced to terrorising civilians because his forces can’t encircle and capture major cities or decapitate Ukraine’s government. So we are helping Ukraine (it’s weaponry/sanctions) and most importantly Ukrainians are resisting Russia with courage and skill. Even if Putin conquers Ukraine, could he hold it? I don’t see how.

So I don’t see ‘reconciliation’ taking place in the near future. But a sour peace deal that involves compromises and a Russian withdrawal is possible. And that would compound the failure for Putin and hopefully begin a process that will bring him down.

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